re:position

A monthly newsletter and community round-up, shining light on the art and science of powerful market positioning. 

Hello there my friend,

I received a newsletter a few days ago confidently declaring that summer had arrived. Well in this corner of Auckland summer is almost done. But the beach is still very much on our minds.

Which got me thinking about waves. Not the ocean kind, but the hype cycles that build around new technology. I’ve been thinking about what happens when the thing that once made you special becomes standard. 

Stay between the flags people, see you out there,

AM

When hype becomes commodity

When your edge becomes expected

I’m a sucker for the hype that surrounds tech innovation. The incessant buzzy commentary, the predictions about the trend-line, the dead ends, the legends. It’s fun watching what once was touted as "the future" slowly become the tech we take for granted each day. That’s human ingenuity in action I guess. 

When we look down this path of innovation with hindsight, it almost appears pre-ordained. “Steve Jobs made the call to kill our beloved iPod; because he predicted the rise of the smart phone and knew everybody would want their music library on the same device." Which of course is nonsense, but nonsense that leads many to expect that innovation is a straight line. 

The distortion of hindsight 

Hindsight is an entertaining thing, but it warps our sense of reality. We all know that future success comes through measured risk and trial, not adherence to a single perfect trajectory. As technology evolves, we have to be on the lookout for the next big thing to try. This of course is where we get tripped up by our own FOMO. The greater the hype about a new innovation, the feeling that there is an emerging trend that “the market will demand”, the more likely we are to shoe-horn it into our product and eventually into our sales. 

Admit it, we’ve all slapped the latest “game changing” tech onto a slide deck to impress a customer so they see us as early adopters. The ol’ talk first, build later mentality, guilty as charged. 

Short-term lift, long-term risk

In my book, there is nothing wrong with a little spin, as innovation hype creates a tailwind for us all. Visible adoption of the latest big hype can instantly turn the weakest vague promises into statements of visionary market leadership. But it’s also one that can push us off course, hiding a lack of differentiated value or poor product-market fit. 

It’s vital to remember that every hype wave eventually breaks. The tech either gets swamped by the next big thing, or gets absorbed into the mainstream. Where we start with excitable early adopters, we finish with skeptical buyers who don’t care about your tech stack, LLM or disruptive engine. They just care about their personal survival.

Swimmers, not surfers

The harsh reality is that if your positioning relies on the adoption hype created by a category, then you’re quickly into dangerous waters. You’re a swimmer, not a surfer. 

When the hype crashes or gets subsumed, the swimmers are left treading water. 

In a post hype market, yesterday’s high value innovation is now a commodity. So how can you make sure that you don’t go down with the trend? 

At risk of repetition, surviving tech hype isn’t about a product pivot, it’s about finally admitting what you solve. Strip away those revolutionary adjectives and get back to the (often) dull and gritty, but high value problem you solve with these two little tricks. 

Trick 1: Noun test

I love the noun replacement test. Take the copy from your sales deck and find the hype lines - we “use AI to transform enterprise workflows” sort of thing, and replace the hype with what it actually is. So you “use software to transform enterprise workflows”. Hmm that doesn’t really say anything at all. 

It’s an easy test, but a hard lesson. It reminds us about what we all know but often forget; the tech is the how, the value is in the what and the why. 

Trick 2: Budget test

If that fails to impress, try the budget test. Go back to your sales deck and ask if your customer would buy it out of their ops budget, not their tech innovation budget. 

Tech will always be led by trends, as the next good idea starts to spread from the fringes to the mainstream. So the hype wave is something to be continually on the lookout for. But with a little perspective, you can ride it out in style, all the way to the beach. 

Brain food

True to this month's topic, it’s very rare to find some inspiration that is truly in the venn diagram of what I love to listen to. Introducing Business History Podcasts.

Not nearly as geeky as it sounds, but hugely entertaining and full of lessons for us all. It’s become a regular and welcome distraction on my morning runs, no higher praise needed.  

If you know anyone who might enjoy this read, feel free to pass it on or suggest they sign up here. 

3green is a commercial strategy practice in Aotearoa, led by B2B market positioning specialist Andy Mitchell. 

If you’d like to talk about your market position, let's schedule a chat.  I’m always interested in hearing what’s happening in your market and where you’re feeling pressure.

If this sparked a thought, you’ll find more on LinkedIn. Come and join the conversation.