The impact of the Tangerine President in the Whitehouse is staggering in its global reach and intensity. We’re witnessing the conflation of social, political and economic forces, making 2025 potentially an epoch-defining year. Right now, it’s impossible to block out the noise and pretend that our own businesses and lives are somehow insulated from events a world away. For small nations like New Zealand, global trade and cooperation is fundamental to our wellbeing, and it’s no secret that this simple certainty has is now in jeopardy.
It’s little wonder that consumer confidence is stuffed. Our ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index has tracked positive for less than 20% of the time since 2020 and is tanking again. With unemployment and business failures continuing to rise, the post-pandemic hangover feels like it’s here to stay.
So, measuring business or consumer “confidence” doesn’t seem fitting anymore. How can anybody be expected to feel confident about the future when the pace of change is so rapid?
Now, I’m a glass-half-full kinda of guy and there's certainly opportunity out there. But right now, I think it’s essential to accept that we’re leading our businesses through markets that are chronically uncertain. In fact, the only thing we can expect to accurately predict today is more change. After all, this pace of disruption isn’t an accidental bug, it’s a deliberate feature.
Like every chronic condition, we've arrived here in downward steps. Our ability to predict and plan has been undermined each year until we've found ourselves here, in a state of perpetual high alert to change. Our human responses to such conditions are well known. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund, nailed it last week while announcing a global slowdown: “Faced with increased uncertainty,…many firms’ initial reaction will be to pause, reduce investment and cut purchases.”
It's so profound and so obvious a statement at the same time. The IMF has just suggested that most firms will stop whatever they're planning to do. I think they've just reminded us that uncertainty is the enemy of strategy. Or perhaps they're just paraphrasing the immortal Mike Tyson, who once quipped, “Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face.” So, how on earth might we lead our business when we don’t know where the next punch will come from?
For my own businesses and my customers, I’ve turned to the enduring advice to “focus only on what you can control.” When trying to quiet the noise and simplify strategic decisions, I’ve discovered just how useful market positioning frameworks are during times like these. Why? Because the only two things we can ever control are also the drivers of our market positioning—our product and who we choose to sell it to.
Focussing on the two simplest drivers of our market positioning is like strategic meditation. It helps our teams ask the questions that lead to business growth.
Q: Is our target customer optimal in size, value and ease of access?
Q: Is our product evolving to differentiate from competitors targeting that same customer?
Remember, our markets will move and reorganise faster than ever. But this time, everybody is being impacted and looking for advantage wherever they can. This means that we have to re-evaluate our positioning and strategy more frequently than before.
So be ready to flush group think out of your organisation to really see what's ahead and normalise asking for help. Impartiality is the tool you need to recognise and understand the value you create for your market. None of us are impartial in our own businesses!
Above all, keep moving and don’t freeze. Hold your positioning lightly and be ready to adapt to new barriers, new competitors and a new normal. Success in 2025 demands that we all create new mindset and adapt to heightened risk. The future will surely be won by those who stay on their toes.
